21 de junio de 2011

Greece and their default

I think the whole issue is not as simple as it is being depicted in some media. Generalization/oversimplification is the mother of hate between countries and social groups. Some people in the north of Europe seem to assume that Greece is a single entity, when actually is built by many individuals. I'm quite sure they know it, but sometimes they forget. And not all of them deserve what is happening now to their country. In fact I believe most don't.

It all reduces to "lazy Greek grasshoppers don't work hard enough/good enough, they don't deserve a high standard of living, and they must pay their debt". Sure thing, that is true and a society cannot rely on perpetual borrowing. The problem here is not that, and probably you would know it if you were to roam the streets of Athens talking to people. People I talk to don't want to be "rescued", they don't want to borrow more money. That is all been pushed by the people in the socialist government, pushed themselves by the eurobureaucracy.

Most Greek people don't agree with the macro-spending of the last ten years (Olympic games included), that only served a few. And they sure realize that things became overly expensive and that the whole € thing was a very bad idea.

So, if finally a referendum is held, and the democracy works, what you will get is a default of the Greek state, and an exit of the euro system, which by now is probably the only exit. Of course that would imply that foreign lenders would have to take a haircut, and they want to avoid that at any cost, but the Greek state is entitled to default if they decide so, and they will have to put up with the consequences of that decision.

Personally I believe it will be better for a majority of people. Greece does not need many of their current imports. They have a lot of sun and can produce their own food (unlike most northern regions in the world), they already have infrastructures that are enough for the country to grow at an acceptable rate, and will be able to pay with cash the goods that they absolutely require. It has been done before, it can be done now.

My take is that in the discussions between the Greek government and the troica, the ones pressuring the Greek government to borrow more money arte the troica (Commission + ECB + IMF), and the ones trying to not pay are the greeks.

Defaults happen in a market, it is part of the system. Trying to avoid them/postpone them only will lead to the suffering of millions of people that probably don't bear any guilt. I take that nobody with a good heart wants that. And I don't want to hear "this is the market, they get what they deserve", cos the market is made of people after all, and in this case it is some few people making the important decisions. Those are political decisions, and the whole issue is as far away from a perfect market as it can get. They are in fact forcing a whole country into a route that they would rather not take. When foreign powers try to control the inner workings of a sovereign and independent state through pressure on a few (those in the government) it can be only interpreted as an act of war or high treason, if the government cedes to the pressure.

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